Publications
Making America Great Again? The Economic Impacts of Liberation Day Tariffs.
Journal of International Economics, 2025; 157, 104138
with Anna Ignatenko, Ahmad Lashkaripour, and Ina Simonovska
[Published Version (Open Access)] [Replication Package] [NBER] [CEPR] [CESifo]
Press Coverage: CSIS, UCDavis; in Italian: Ansa, Quotidiano Nazionale, La Statale News , RiEnergia
Journal of International Economics, 2025; 157, 104138
with Anna Ignatenko, Ahmad Lashkaripour, and Ina Simonovska
[Published Version (Open Access)] [Replication Package] [NBER] [CEPR] [CESifo]
Press Coverage: CSIS, UCDavis; in Italian: Ansa, Quotidiano Nazionale, La Statale News , RiEnergia
Large Firms, Consumer Heterogeneity and the Profit Share.
Forthcoming at American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics
with Robert C. Feenstra and Mingzhi Xu
[Published Version] [Video (older version)] [NBER]
Forthcoming at American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics
with Robert C. Feenstra and Mingzhi Xu
[Published Version] [Video (older version)] [NBER]
International Spillovers of Quality Regulations.
International Economic Review, 2024; 66 453-484
with Ariel Weinberger
[Published Version] [CESifo] [Video (older version)]
International Economic Review, 2024; 66 453-484
with Ariel Weinberger
[Published Version] [CESifo] [Video (older version)]
Oligopoly and Oligopsony in International Trade.
Canadian Journal of Economics, 2024; 57,401-429
with Vladimir Tyazhelnikov
[Published Version][Replication Package] [Online Appendix]
Canadian Journal of Economics, 2024; 57,401-429
with Vladimir Tyazhelnikov
[Published Version][Replication Package] [Online Appendix]
Pricing in Firm-to-Firm Trade. Evidence from a Danish Multinational.
Review of World Economics, 2024; 160, 311-375
with Elena Mattana
[Published Version] [Online Appendix]
Review of World Economics, 2024; 160, 311-375
with Elena Mattana
[Published Version] [Online Appendix]
Large Multiproduct Exporters Across Rich and Poor Countries: Theory and Evidence.
Journal of Development Economics, 2022; 156, 10283
[Published Version] [Online Appendix]
Journal of Development Economics, 2022; 156, 10283
[Published Version] [Online Appendix]
Asymmetric Information, Quality, and Regulations.
Review of International Economics, 2022; 30(4), 1180-1198
[Published Version]
Review of International Economics, 2022; 30(4), 1180-1198
[Published Version]
Flexibility and Productivity: Towards the Understanding of Firm Heterogeneity.
International Economic Review, 2022; 63: 1055-1108
with Mingzhi Xu
[Published Version] [Online Appendix]
International Economic Review, 2022; 63: 1055-1108
with Mingzhi Xu
[Published Version] [Online Appendix]
Quality Heterogeneity and Misallocation: The Welfare Benefits of Raising your Standards.
Journal of International Economics, 2022; 134, 103544
with Ariel Weinberger
[Published Version] [Replication Package] [The Planner's Allocation] [The CES case] [Other VES Preferences]
Journal of International Economics, 2022; 134, 103544
with Ariel Weinberger
[Published Version] [Replication Package] [The Planner's Allocation] [The CES case] [Other VES Preferences]
Monopsonistic Competition, Trade, and the Profit Share.
Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 2022; 124: 488-515
[Published Version] [Replication Package]
Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 2022; 124: 488-515
[Published Version] [Replication Package]
Has the Euro Shrunk the Band? Relative PPP Convergence in a Currency Union.
Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 2021; 123(2), 593–620
[Published Version] [Online Appendix]
Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 2021; 123(2), 593–620
[Published Version] [Online Appendix]
Working Papers
Lobbying for Regulations: When Big Business Says Yes. October 2025 (submitted)
with Ariel Weinberger
Do firms uniformly oppose regulations that increase production costs, or might industry leaders strategically support stricter standards as a competitive tool? We identify a specific mechanism through which regulatory advocacy serves as a non-market strategy for large firms to enhance their competitive position. By extending the Melitz-Chaney model of firm heterogeneity to incorporate both government regulations and firm lobbying, we demonstrate that regulations primarily increasing fixed costs can disproportionately burden smaller competitors while benefiting larger survivors through reduced competition. Our model predicts that firm size positively correlates with support for stringent regulations, but that larger sunk investments will push firms to oppose such policies. To test these predictions, we apply a novel guided machine learning approach to classify around 20,000 U.S. lobbying reports across diverse regulatory domains. Our findings confirm that larger firms are significantly more likely to support stricter regulations, especially in concentrated industries. We also uncover that capital-intensive firms with high leverage and less redeployable assets tend to oppose regulations, suggesting that operational flexibility is crucial for extracting strategic benefits from regulatory changes. Consistent with our mechanism, industry exit rates increase with regulatory intensity.
with Ariel Weinberger
Do firms uniformly oppose regulations that increase production costs, or might industry leaders strategically support stricter standards as a competitive tool? We identify a specific mechanism through which regulatory advocacy serves as a non-market strategy for large firms to enhance their competitive position. By extending the Melitz-Chaney model of firm heterogeneity to incorporate both government regulations and firm lobbying, we demonstrate that regulations primarily increasing fixed costs can disproportionately burden smaller competitors while benefiting larger survivors through reduced competition. Our model predicts that firm size positively correlates with support for stringent regulations, but that larger sunk investments will push firms to oppose such policies. To test these predictions, we apply a novel guided machine learning approach to classify around 20,000 U.S. lobbying reports across diverse regulatory domains. Our findings confirm that larger firms are significantly more likely to support stricter regulations, especially in concentrated industries. We also uncover that capital-intensive firms with high leverage and less redeployable assets tend to oppose regulations, suggesting that operational flexibility is crucial for extracting strategic benefits from regulatory changes. Consistent with our mechanism, industry exit rates increase with regulatory intensity.
Inequality and Market Power: Evidence from the United States and China. October 2025 (submitted)
CESifo Working Paper No. 12181
with Mingzhi Xu and Yumin Hu
[CESifo]
Using barcode-level data from the NielsenIQ Homescan Consumer Panel, we study how income inequality affects the prices of identical goods across US counties. We find that higher inequality reduces prices for products with low market shares but increases prices for products with high market shares. With higher inequality, larger firms, which sell more high-market-share goods, tend to raise prices, while smaller firms lower them. We find a similar pattern using Chinese export data across countries. To interpret these findings, we develop a model where a mean-preserving spread in income affects pricing through the convexity of demand and the convexity of the price derivative of demand with respect to income. We derive conditions under which inequality raises the price elasticity for low-market-share products and lowers it for high-market-share products, matching our empirical results.
CESifo Working Paper No. 12181
with Mingzhi Xu and Yumin Hu
[CESifo]
Using barcode-level data from the NielsenIQ Homescan Consumer Panel, we study how income inequality affects the prices of identical goods across US counties. We find that higher inequality reduces prices for products with low market shares but increases prices for products with high market shares. With higher inequality, larger firms, which sell more high-market-share goods, tend to raise prices, while smaller firms lower them. We find a similar pattern using Chinese export data across countries. To interpret these findings, we develop a model where a mean-preserving spread in income affects pricing through the convexity of demand and the convexity of the price derivative of demand with respect to income. We derive conditions under which inequality raises the price elasticity for low-market-share products and lowers it for high-market-share products, matching our empirical results.
Testing the Waters: How Firms Enter New Markets. September 2025 (submitted)
CEPR Discussion Paper No. 19485; CESifo Working Paper No. 11340
with Carsten Eckel, Ina Jäkel, and Raymond Riezman
[CEPR] [CESifo]
Using firm-level data on production and trade from Denmark, we document that firms frequently employ a strategy of entering new export markets exclusively with Carry-Along Trade (CAT), i.e., with products manufactured by other firms. To rationalize this new stylized fact, we propose a model where CAT plays a pivotal role in enabling firms to learn about market conditions and assess market viability. In our framework, exporting requires upfront entry investments that create a benefit of knowing the exact market conditions. When the potential losses incurred from making investment decisions for own-goods based on expected market characteristics are significant, beginning to export with CAT becomes the optimal strategy. We provide empirical evidence in support of our mechanism by showing that entering with CAT is particularly prevalent among small firms, in distant markets, and among firms with no prior exporting experience.
CEPR Discussion Paper No. 19485; CESifo Working Paper No. 11340
with Carsten Eckel, Ina Jäkel, and Raymond Riezman
[CEPR] [CESifo]
Using firm-level data on production and trade from Denmark, we document that firms frequently employ a strategy of entering new export markets exclusively with Carry-Along Trade (CAT), i.e., with products manufactured by other firms. To rationalize this new stylized fact, we propose a model where CAT plays a pivotal role in enabling firms to learn about market conditions and assess market viability. In our framework, exporting requires upfront entry investments that create a benefit of knowing the exact market conditions. When the potential losses incurred from making investment decisions for own-goods based on expected market characteristics are significant, beginning to export with CAT becomes the optimal strategy. We provide empirical evidence in support of our mechanism by showing that entering with CAT is particularly prevalent among small firms, in distant markets, and among firms with no prior exporting experience.
Wage Setting in Multiproduct Firms. September 2025 (submitted)
CESifo Working Paper No. 11674
with Jackie M.L. Chan, Michael Koch, and Michael Irlacher
[CESifo]
This paper reveals a new determinant of wage markdowns at the firm level, namely, the product scope. Using matched employer-employee data on Danish manufacturing firms, we document a negative elasticity between wages and firm scope, which is of a similar magnitude but opposite sign as the firm-size wage premium. We rationalize the wage discount using a theory where workers value the opportunity to switch product lines as an amenity. Multiproduct firms exercise their monopsony power to offer lower wages. Our findings have important implications for understanding labor market dynamics in times of rising concentration from the contribution of large multiproduct firms.
CESifo Working Paper No. 11674
with Jackie M.L. Chan, Michael Koch, and Michael Irlacher
[CESifo]
This paper reveals a new determinant of wage markdowns at the firm level, namely, the product scope. Using matched employer-employee data on Danish manufacturing firms, we document a negative elasticity between wages and firm scope, which is of a similar magnitude but opposite sign as the firm-size wage premium. We rationalize the wage discount using a theory where workers value the opportunity to switch product lines as an amenity. Multiproduct firms exercise their monopsony power to offer lower wages. Our findings have important implications for understanding labor market dynamics in times of rising concentration from the contribution of large multiproduct firms.
Firms in Product Space. August 2025 (submitted)
CEPR Discussion Paper No. 18800; CEP Discussion Paper No. 1978; CESifo Working Paper No. 11398
with John Morrow and Vladimir Tyazhelnikov
[CEPR] [CEP] [ESCOE] [ESCOE Blog] [CESifo]
Which products are efficiently produced together and which firms supply which products? Modeling multi-product firms under variable markups, we estimate firms' absolute advantages for produced products and develop an algorithm to predict them for unproduced products. Better advantages imply increased product adoption and explain which firms supply products when export demand induces domestic adoption. Predicted advantages and markups imply measures of Revenue and Competition Potential which explain firm sales and scope growth. If all firms produced all potential products, consumer welfare could increase by 16-30% under constant markups, rising to 46-86% under variable markups.
CEPR Discussion Paper No. 18800; CEP Discussion Paper No. 1978; CESifo Working Paper No. 11398
with John Morrow and Vladimir Tyazhelnikov
[CEPR] [CEP] [ESCOE] [ESCOE Blog] [CESifo]
Which products are efficiently produced together and which firms supply which products? Modeling multi-product firms under variable markups, we estimate firms' absolute advantages for produced products and develop an algorithm to predict them for unproduced products. Better advantages imply increased product adoption and explain which firms supply products when export demand induces domestic adoption. Predicted advantages and markups imply measures of Revenue and Competition Potential which explain firm sales and scope growth. If all firms produced all potential products, consumer welfare could increase by 16-30% under constant markups, rising to 46-86% under variable markups.
Tariffs Tax the Poor More: Evidence from Household Consumption During the US-China Trade War. August 2025 (submitted)
CESifo Working Paper No. 11610
with Hong Ma, Jingxin Ning, and Mingzhi Xu
[SSRN] [CESifo]
Using disaggregated US household expenditure data, we study the distributional consequences of the US-China trade war. We estimate a highly flexible demand system to compute household-specific price indexes. The increases in US tariffs on Chinese products between 2018 and 2019 led to an average price index increase of 1.09%, with a disproportionately larger impact on low-income households. Specifically, we document a 0.9 percentage point smaller increase in the household price index for the top 20% income households compared to the bottom 20%. The difference stems from wealthier households' greater expenditure adjustments and smaller reductions in product variety.
CESifo Working Paper No. 11610
with Hong Ma, Jingxin Ning, and Mingzhi Xu
[SSRN] [CESifo]
Using disaggregated US household expenditure data, we study the distributional consequences of the US-China trade war. We estimate a highly flexible demand system to compute household-specific price indexes. The increases in US tariffs on Chinese products between 2018 and 2019 led to an average price index increase of 1.09%, with a disproportionately larger impact on low-income households. Specifically, we document a 0.9 percentage point smaller increase in the household price index for the top 20% income households compared to the bottom 20%. The difference stems from wealthier households' greater expenditure adjustments and smaller reductions in product variety.
Shocks to the Organization of the Firm: the Case of Foreign Takeovers. November 2024
CESifo Working Paper No. 11525
with Michael Koch and Angelina Odintsova
[CESifo]
This paper studies how foreign acquisitions affect firms' internal labor organization, particularly occupational switching. This focus is inspired by new stylized facts we document using linked employer-employee data from Denmark: while the total number of occupations and hierarchical layers in firms remains stable, a significant share of firms simultaneously add and drop occupations and layers each year. Applying a dynamic two-way fixed effects matching estimator, we find that foreign acquisitions lead to significant reorganization within firms: though the number of layers or occupations remains unchanged, firms exhibit substantial occupational churning among existing workers, especially among higher-paid employees.
CESifo Working Paper No. 11525
with Michael Koch and Angelina Odintsova
[CESifo]
This paper studies how foreign acquisitions affect firms' internal labor organization, particularly occupational switching. This focus is inspired by new stylized facts we document using linked employer-employee data from Denmark: while the total number of occupations and hierarchical layers in firms remains stable, a significant share of firms simultaneously add and drop occupations and layers each year. Applying a dynamic two-way fixed effects matching estimator, we find that foreign acquisitions lead to significant reorganization within firms: though the number of layers or occupations remains unchanged, firms exhibit substantial occupational churning among existing workers, especially among higher-paid employees.
Fight or Flight? How Do Firms Adapt their Product Mix in Response to Demand and Competition. May 2024
CESifo Working Paper No. 11144.
Revise and Resubmit at Journal of the European Economic Association
with Frederic Warzynski and Rui Zhang
[CESifo]
We propose a new model of multi-product firms in international trade, where firms choose their product mix based on the products' attractiveness and endogenous competition. The model is motivated by two novel stylized facts using Danish manufacturing data, which demonstrate the importance of product-specific characteristics in understanding firms' product mix choices. The model predicts that as a larger number of firms want to supply products with high attractiveness, these products also feature the toughest competition. Depending on the strength of competition, two sorting patterns are possible: one in which only the most productive firms produce the most attractive products and another in which all firms produce the most attractive products. Our model can generate both sorting patterns depending on the value of a key preference parameter. By quantifying our model, we find that product-specific differences in attractiveness and competition explain a quarter of the variation in sales. Furthermore, we find that the most attractive products tend to be produced by all firms, while the least attractive products are made only by the most productive firms.
CESifo Working Paper No. 11144.
Revise and Resubmit at Journal of the European Economic Association
with Frederic Warzynski and Rui Zhang
[CESifo]
We propose a new model of multi-product firms in international trade, where firms choose their product mix based on the products' attractiveness and endogenous competition. The model is motivated by two novel stylized facts using Danish manufacturing data, which demonstrate the importance of product-specific characteristics in understanding firms' product mix choices. The model predicts that as a larger number of firms want to supply products with high attractiveness, these products also feature the toughest competition. Depending on the strength of competition, two sorting patterns are possible: one in which only the most productive firms produce the most attractive products and another in which all firms produce the most attractive products. Our model can generate both sorting patterns depending on the value of a key preference parameter. By quantifying our model, we find that product-specific differences in attractiveness and competition explain a quarter of the variation in sales. Furthermore, we find that the most attractive products tend to be produced by all firms, while the least attractive products are made only by the most productive firms.
Work in Progress
Explorations in Product Space: Multi-product Firms and their Product Portfolios
with Carsten Eckel, Ina Jäkel, and Raymond Riezman
with Carsten Eckel, Ina Jäkel, and Raymond Riezman
Straight from the Apple Tree: Gravity Shapes the Production Network at the Firm-Level
with Gustavo Gonzáles and Guzman Ourens
with Gustavo Gonzáles and Guzman Ourens
Publications - Pre Ph.D.
Exchange Rate Devaluation and Reshuffling of Global Jobs
Journal of Economic Integration, 2013; 28(2):241-268. Awarded the Dae-Yang Prize for best article in 2013.
with F. Sdogati
[Published Version]
Journal of Economic Integration, 2013; 28(2):241-268. Awarded the Dae-Yang Prize for best article in 2013.
with F. Sdogati
[Published Version]